Oil State

Deterministic factor recipes over primary data — descriptive, not predictive.

The products you trade

3OIL and 3OIS on Borsa Italiana, read from their own prices for the first time: what holding each one for a week, a month and a quarter actually did, beside what oil did over the same sessions.

Oil = front-month WTI from the prototype feed, in USD. The products track a Solactive second-month index and the Milan line is priced in EUR, so the gap between a product and its daily-reset path includes EUR/USD, fees, swap, the index roll and tracking — measured, not modelled. Oil as of 2026-10-20.

Your position

What you hold, valued on the product's own series: profit or loss since entry, what the wrapper has charged you, and what one session of this product does to the position in euro.

id,date,ticker,action,eur,price,units,note
1,2026-09-10,3OIL,buy,5000,52.10,,why I did it, one line

Arithmetic on your ledger and the stored prices — nothing here is a recommendation. Fee and swap are estimates from the disclosed rates, per calendar day on the position's value, and both rates are still unverified against the issuer's documents.

A size that means something

The largest position in each product that survives the one session you cannot act on, as a share of your account and in euro — four caps, the smallest wins, and the one that set it is named. Computed on the product's own history and your standing risk parameters.

A survivability constraint, not a suggestion to hold anything: it says how large a position could be before one bad session costs more than you said you would accept. The volatility cap is shown because it is the number most sizing tools would give — and it is two to four times looser than the gap you cannot act on. Parameters are yours to change; the arithmetic then changes with them.

Why leverage at all?

The same oil exposure bought two ways: the 3x product at the size that survives, or three times that size in the issuer's unleveraged WTI ETC. What each made, what its worst session cost, how deep it fell, and how much capital it tied up — in euro, side by side.

Descriptive, on the product's own prices and the account the sizing panel uses. It says what the two ways did over these windows, not which to choose. Leverage exists to solve capital scarcity; at a few percent of the account there is none — what the wrapper buys, if anything, is in the table.

The first honest answer

One rule, written into the register before it ran: hold 3OIL when its close is above the close 20 sessions earlier, otherwise stay in cash. Against the two things anyone can do instead — hold it, or do nothing — after trading costs.

One trial, one lookback, one execution convention, on the product's own price. It says what this rule did in this window after these costs — not that trend-following cannot work, not what other lookbacks do, and nothing about tomorrow. Every further rule is a new line in research/REGISTER.md; the count is the point.

Deterministic factor recipes over primary data — descriptive, not predictive. Each factor is a fixed, versioned recipe. Click one to open its chart and inputs.

Key numbers

Mechanical flags

Threshold breaches only (|z| ≥ 1.5 or percentile ≤ 5 / ≥ 95). Facts, not signals.

Market clock and exposure

When the market you trade on is open, and how long you hold risk you cannot act on. Computed from exchange rules, holiday calendars and time zones — no estimates.

19 clock rules are still based on secondary sources and are marked provisional (~) until confirmed against exchange documents.