TRADERO.
Data updated 2026-09-03 20:00 UTC · 44,317 obs · recipes-0.1

Oil State

Deterministic factor recipes over primary data — descriptive, not predictive.

▲ TILTED BULLISH
Descriptive balance: +5 of ±14 across 7 scored factors

Deterministic factor recipes over primary data — descriptive, not predictive. Each factor is a fixed, versioned recipe. Click one to open its chart and inputs.

+5−140+14

Trend

▲ strongly bullish

Price vs 50- and 200-day averages

ma5080.97
close92.05
ma20078.82
Recipe

+1 if close>MA200, +1 if MA50>MA200 (mirror negative)

⚠︎ computed on the prototype price feed
as of 2026-09-04

Futures curve

… pending data

Contango / backwardation — awaiting licensed contract data

Recipe

F1-F2 and F1-F4 annualized slope (backwardation = bullish) — awaiting licensed contract-level data (P0 decision)

⚠︎ awaiting licensed data (Phase 0 decision)

Crude inventories

▼ bearish

US commercial stocks vs 5-year seasonal band

z0.65
value424460.00
Recipe

z vs 5y same-week band; below seasonal = bullish; |z|<0.5=0, <1.5=±1, else ±2

as of 2026-08-28

Cushing hub

▲ bullish

WTI delivery point stocks vs seasonal band

z-1.11
value22508.00
Recipe

same seasonal-z recipe on WTI's delivery hub

as of 2026-08-28

Product stocks

▲ strongly bullish

Gasoline + distillate vs seasonal bands

z_avg-2.92
z_gasoline-3.60
z_distillate-2.25
Recipe

mean seasonal-z of gasoline+distillate; low product stocks = bullish crude demand pull

as of 2026-08-28

Positioning

neutral

Managed-money net length, contrarian at extremes

pctile_3y30.90
net_contracts84020.00
Recipe

managed-money net 3y percentile, contrarian at extremes: <10=+2 washed-out, <30=+1, 30-70=0, >70=-1, >90=-2 crowded

⚠︎ contrarian reading — untested
as of 2026-08-25

US dollar

▲ bullish

Broad USD index, 3-year percentile

index118.75
pctile_3y9.00
Recipe

broad USD 3y percentile: <20 = +1 (weak dollar supportive), >80 = -1, else 0

as of 2026-08-28

Drilling activity

neutral

US oil rig count, 3-year percentile

rigs447.00
pctile_3y30.90
Recipe

US oil rigs 3y percentile: <25 = +1 (supply restraint), >75 = -1, else 0

as of 2026-08-28
Strategic Petroleum Reserve 286,604 · 3-year percentile 1 · as of 2026-08-28Refinery utilization 98 · 3-year percentile 100 · as of 2026-08-28

Key numbers

WTI front monthPROTOTYPE FEED
91.61 $/bbl
▲ 0.60 (0.66%)
Brent front monthPROTOTYPE FEED
95.65 $/bbl
▲ 0.02 (0.02%)
US crude stocks (ex-SPR)
424.5 M bbl
z 0.65 · as of 2026-08-28
Positioning
84.0k contracts
3-year percentile: 31

Mechanical flags

Threshold breaches only (|z| ≥ 1.5 or percentile ≤ 5 / ≥ 95). Facts, not signals.

z -3.60Gasoline stocks — 205,669 kbbl · as of 2026-08-28
z -2.25Distillate stocks — 104,187 kbbl · as of 2026-08-28
pctile 0.5Strategic Petroleum Reserve — 286,604 kbbl · as of 2026-08-28
pctile 100.0Refinery utilization — 98 pct · as of 2026-08-28

Upcoming releases

2026-09-04CFTC positioning (COT)15:30 ET
2026-09-04Baker Hughes rig count13:00 ET
2026-09-10EIA Weekly Petroleum Statusholiday-shifted10:30 ET
2026-09-11CFTC positioning (COT)15:30 ET
2026-09-11Baker Hughes rig count13:00 ET
2026-09-16EIA Weekly Petroleum Status10:30 ET

Decide

No tested strategy exists yet — nothing on this site is a recommendation. The factor board above is descriptive: its predictive value is exactly what the research phase will test. Strategies enter this panel only after passing the admission gate (positive out-of-sample results after doubled costs, beating trend/carry baselines).